Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 1.415556 1.602483 1.800274 2.024681 2.271740 2.534954 2.836097
2025-01-19 1.133890 1.385587 1.668418 2.008032 2.402907 2.845672 3.377714
2025-01-26 0.963261 1.264358 1.622016 2.074029 2.625541 3.271883 4.081553
2025-02-02 0.816325 1.150328 1.569250 2.125315 2.835208 3.701771 4.829052
2025-02-09 0.683334 1.034622 1.499806 2.147620 3.011333 4.106920 5.582894
2025-02-16 0.575095 0.935571 1.439186 2.173800 3.194409 4.536210 6.403005
2025-02-23 0.466242 0.818094 1.337782 2.132464 3.282884 4.849547 7.098286
2025-03-02 0.367106 0.697810 1.215412 2.045939 3.298819 5.065267 7.678931
2025-03-09 0.305920 0.627079 1.157544 2.046823 3.438656 5.461923 8.535699
2025-03-16 0.249996 0.554429 1.085869 2.016992 3.528486 5.792330 9.320497
2025-03-23 0.218891 0.520844 1.074275 2.081645 3.768508 6.359245 10.483509
2025-03-30 0.177107 0.457477 1.000926 2.033627 3.823615 6.649524 11.253149
2025-04-06 0.145235 0.408651 0.949360 2.022243 3.946402 7.066922 12.265091
2025-04-13 0.117215 0.360998 0.892063 1.993162 4.036497 7.439545 13.233398
2025-04-20 0.101412 0.338079 0.880744 2.048506 4.278082 8.073510 14.651594
2025-04-27 0.086896 0.314377 0.863827 2.090878 4.500215 8.690148 16.078223
2025-05-04 0.072843 0.287573 0.835280 2.106087 4.673412 9.235025 17.418104
2025-05-11 0.061345 0.264359 0.810758 2.126333 4.857418 9.809639 18.838197
2025-05-18 0.048725 0.232687 0.759328 2.081382 4.910280 10.155983 19.890057
2025-05-25 0.036914 0.198250 0.693048 1.993192 4.867449 10.325921 20.645726
2025-06-01 0.030303 0.179909 0.665855 1.991329 4.999693 10.822672 21.995685
2025-06-08 0.024064 0.159716 0.628720 1.960002 5.066461 11.200006 23.150806
2025-06-15 0.021106 0.152581 0.628915 2.021354 5.336849 11.977898 25.060989